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NE Patriots vs BUF Bills — New England

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value25¢ vs live 21¢ on Polymarket
3.7% against the midpoint, -2.3% against the 27¢ ask you would actually pay, -3.3% after the 0.99¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
28¢ last
BidAsk
YES27¢28¢
NO72¢73¢
$22,900 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
21¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢27¢
NO73¢74¢
$612 volume
Cross-venue spread 7.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If New England wins the NE Patriots vs BUF Bills Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread7.0¢
Kalshi last28¢
Polymarket last21¢
Model fair value25¢
Model confidence30%
Venues2
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