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Minnesota vs Connecticut — Minnesota

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value81¢ vs live 79¢ on Polymarket
2.0% against the midpoint, -6.0% against the 87¢ ask you would actually pay, -6.6% after the 0.57¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
83¢ last
BidAsk
YES82¢84¢
NO16¢18¢
$3,608 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
79¢ last
BidAsk
YES79¢87¢
NO13¢21¢
$1,207 volume
Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Minnesota wins the Minnesota vs Connecticut women's Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connecticut Sun". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last83¢
Polymarket last79¢
Model fair value81¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.