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MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings: Total Points — Over 42.5 points

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value59¢ vs live 58¢ on Polymarket
1.4% against the midpoint, -2.6% against the 62¢ ask you would actually pay, -3.8% after the 1.18¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
38¢ last
BidAsk
YES39¢40¢
NO60¢61¢
$2,764 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
42¢ last
BidAsk
YES38¢42¢
NO58¢62¢
$875 volume
Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If MIA Dolphins and MIN Vikings collectively score more than 42.5 points in the MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Dolphins and Vikings combine to score 43 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 43, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last38¢
Polymarket last42¢
Model fair value59¢
Model confidence32%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.