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Lyon Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 20, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
57¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢57¢
NO43¢44¢
$419 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
59¢ last
BidAsk
YES58¢59¢
NO41¢42¢
$1,676 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Pierre-Hugues Herbert wins the Herbert vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Lyon Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Sebastian Baez in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pierre-Hugues Herbert' if Pierre-Hugues Herbert advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Pierre-Hugues Herbert. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last57¢
Polymarket last59¢
Venues2
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