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Lyon Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 25, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
49¢ last
BidAsk
YES44¢49¢
NO51¢56¢
$316 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
36¢ last
BidAsk
YES35¢36¢
NO64¢65¢
$5,238 volume
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Cross-venue spread 13.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 92¢ per $1 payout, locking +8.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Lorenzo Musetti wins the Musetti vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread13.0¢
Kalshi last49¢
Polymarket last36¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.