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Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 24, 2026
MarketMaster fair value54¢ vs live 53¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 53¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.0% after the 1.74¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$31,463 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
55¢ last
BidAsk
YES54¢55¢
NO45¢46¢
$23,979 volume
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Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Flavio Cobolli wins the Cobolli vs Musetti professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Lyon Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last54¢
Polymarket last55¢
Model fair value54¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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