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LoL: Shark Attack vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 29, 2026
MarketMaster fair value95¢ vs live 91¢ on Kalshi
▲ +4.1% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
25¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢29¢
NO71¢74¢
$10,906 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
22¢ last
BidAsk
YES21¢22¢
NO78¢79¢
$24,806 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +4.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Shark Attack wins the TCL 2026: Dark Passage vs. Shark Attack League of Legends match originally scheduled for Jul 29, 2026 at 10:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket round 1 match between Shark Attack and Dark Passage in the TCL Play-Ins, initially scheduled for July 29 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shark Attack" if Shark Attack win the match against Dark Passage. This market will resolve to "Dark Passage" if Dark Passage win the match against Shark Attack. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last25¢
Polymarket last22¢
Model fair value
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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