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LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 13, 2026
MarketMaster fair value92¢ vs live 91¢ on Kalshi
▲ +1.9% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
91¢ last
BidAsk
YES90¢91¢
NO10¢
$1,953 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
94¢ last
BidAsk
YES93¢94¢
NO
$22,958 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If NightBirds wins the Hitpoint Masters 2026: eSuba vs. NightBirds League of Legends match originally scheduled for Aug 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the LoL match between NightBirds and eSuba in the Hitpoint Masters Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "NightBirds" if NightBirds win the match against eSuba. This market will resolve to "eSuba" if eSuba win the match against NightBirds. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last91¢
Polymarket last94¢
Model fair value92¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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