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Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5

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KalshiPolymarket Closes Sep 18, 2026
MarketMaster fair value49¢ vs live 48¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 48¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.75¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
48¢ last
BidAsk
YES47¢48¢
NO52¢53¢
$9,029 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
50¢ last
BidAsk
YES49¢50¢
NO50¢51¢
$4,064 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Detroit and Buffalo collectively score more than 54.5 points in the Detroit vs Buffalo Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Lions and Bills combine to score 55 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 55, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last48¢
Polymarket last50¢
Model fair value49¢
Model confidence29%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.