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KC Chiefs vs LV Raiders — Kansas City

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value35¢ vs live 34¢ on Polymarket
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.4% against the 35¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.14¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
65¢ last
BidAsk
YES64¢65¢
NO35¢36¢
$55,483 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
66¢ last
BidAsk
YES65¢66¢
NO34¢35¢
$5,689 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Kansas City wins the KC Chiefs vs LV Raiders Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25PM ET: If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last65¢
Polymarket last66¢
Model fair value35¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
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