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Jets vs. Bears: O/U 42.5

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value53¢ vs live 52¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 52¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.0% after the 1.75¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
52¢ last
BidAsk
YES51¢52¢
NO48¢49¢
$31,562 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$12,791 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If NY Jets and CHI Bears collectively score more than 42.5 points in the NY Jets vs CHI Bears Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Jets and Bears combine to score 43 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 43, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last52¢
Polymarket last54¢
Model fair value53¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.