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Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 28, 2026
MarketMaster fair value46¢ vs live 44¢ on Kalshi
2.5% against the midpoint, 2.0% against the 44¢ ask you would actually pay, +0.3% after the 1.72¢ taker fee.
▲ +0.3% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
44¢ last
BidAsk
YES43¢44¢
NO56¢57¢
$2,030 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
48¢ last
BidAsk
YES42¢43¢
NO57¢58¢
$4,430 volume
Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Lorenzo Sonego wins the Sonego vs Majchrzak professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Kamil Majchrzak in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Kamil Majchrzak. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majchrzak' if Kamil Majchrzak advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last44¢
Polymarket last48¢
Model fair value46¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
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