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IND Colts vs WAS Commanders: Total Points — Over 44.5 points

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value57¢ vs live 56¢ on Polymarket
1.2% against the midpoint, -2.8% against the 60¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.0% after the 1.20¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
59¢ last
BidAsk
YES57¢59¢
NO41¢43¢
$37,886 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
56¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢60¢
NO40¢44¢
$1,177 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If IND Colts and WAS Commanders collectively score more than 44.5 points in the IND Colts vs WAS Commanders Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Colts and Commanders combine to score 45 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 45, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last59¢
Polymarket last56¢
Model fair value57¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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