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Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues — Anthony Hernandez

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KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 23, 2026

MarketMaster fair value63¢ vs live 61¢ on Polymarket

▲ +1.7% edge · Buy YES

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

64¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	63¢	64¢
NO	36¢	37¢

$34,304 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

61¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	60¢	62¢
NO	38¢	40¢

$4,827 volume

Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Anthony Hernandez wins the Hernandez vs Rodrigues professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Anthony Hernandez" if Anthony Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gregory Rodrigues at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Gregory Rodrigues" if Gregory Rodrigues is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.0¢

Kalshi last64¢

Polymarket last61¢

Model fair value63¢

Model confidence42%

Venues2

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