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Fery vs Fearnley — Arthur Fery

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 26, 2026
MarketMaster fair value51¢ vs live 49¢ on Polymarket
1.8% against the midpoint, -1.2% against the 52¢ ask you would actually pay, -2.4% after the 1.25¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
48¢ last
BidAsk
YES47¢48¢
NO52¢53¢
$3,544 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
51¢ last
BidAsk
YES48¢50¢
NO50¢52¢
$1,151 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Arthur Fery wins the Fery vs Fearnley professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Jacob Fearnley in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last48¢
Polymarket last51¢
Model fair value51¢
Model confidence33%
Venues2
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