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Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 24, 2026
MarketMaster fair value59¢ vs live 57¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 58¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.71¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
43¢ last
BidAsk
YES42¢43¢
NO57¢58¢
$820 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
40¢ last
BidAsk
YES42¢44¢
NO56¢58¢
$1,049 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Corentin Moutet wins the Moutet vs Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Corentin Moutet and Tomas Machac in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Corentin Moutet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last43¢
Polymarket last40¢
Model fair value59¢
Model confidence30%
Venues2
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