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Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 1, 2026
MarketMaster fair value20¢ vs live 19¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 19¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.3% after the 1.08¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$246,450 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
20¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢20¢
NO80¢81¢
$58,851 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alex de Minaur wins the de Minaur vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last18¢
Polymarket last20¢
Model fair value20¢
Model confidence48%
Venues2
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