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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 3, 2026
MarketMaster fair value35¢ vs live 13¢ on Kalshi
▲ +21.8% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
13¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢14¢
NO86¢87¢
$17,039 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
51¢ last
BidAsk
YES50¢51¢
NO49¢50¢
$83,708 volume
Cross-venue spread 38.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 64¢ per $1 payout, locking +36.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Team Liquid wins 1win Essence 2026: LGD Gaming vs. Team Liquid Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Aug 2, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Liquid and LGD Gaming in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for August 2 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread38.0¢
Kalshi last13¢
Polymarket last51¢
Model fair value35¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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