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Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value47¢ vs live 45¢ on Kalshi
2.1% against the midpoint, 1.6% against the 45¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.1% after the 1.73¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
45¢ last
BidAsk
YES44¢45¢
NO55¢56¢
$1,559 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
47¢ last
BidAsk
YES47¢48¢
NO52¢53¢
$23,023 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Conventus Stellarum wins the PGL Wallachia 2026: Xtreme Gaming vs. Conventus Stellarum Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Conventus Stellarum and Xtreme Gaming in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Conventus Stellarum" if Conventus Stellarum win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Conventus Stellarum. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last45¢
Polymarket last47¢
Model fair value47¢
Model confidence18%
Venues2
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