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Dana White's Contender Series: Isaac Moreno vs. Reginaldo Junior (Welterweight, Main Card)

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 9, 2026
MarketMaster fair value45¢ vs live 44¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 44¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.72¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
57¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢57¢
NO43¢44¢
$21,320 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$3,410 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
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Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Isaac Moreno wins the Moreno vs Junior professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Isaac Moreno" if Isaac Moreno is officially declared the winner of the fight against Reginaldo Junior at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5, scheduled for September 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Reginaldo Junior" if Reginaldo Junior is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last57¢
Polymarket last54¢
Model fair value45¢
Model confidence38%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.