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Counter-Strike: Permitta Esports vs Vexar (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 21, 2026
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live 14¢ on Kalshi
▲ +2.6% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO99¢100¢
$7,407 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢
NO81¢91¢
$29,926 volume
Cross-venue spread 17.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 92¢ per $1 payout, locking +8.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Permitta Esports wins the Exort Fiesta 2026: Vexar vs. Permitta Esports CS2 match originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Permitta Esports and Vexar in the Exort Fiesta Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Permitta Esports" if Permitta Esports win the match against Vexar. This market will resolve to "Vexar" if Vexar win the match against Permitta Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread17.0¢
Kalshi last
Polymarket last18¢
Model fair value16¢
Model confidence43%
Venues2
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