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Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 30, 2026
MarketMaster fair value18¢ vs live 16¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.8% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
81¢ last
BidAsk
YES80¢81¢
NO19¢20¢
$5,674 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
84¢ last
BidAsk
YES83¢84¢
NO16¢17¢
$9,071 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If NRG wins the StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier 2026: Marsborne vs. NRG CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 29, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between NRG and Marsborne in the StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 29 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the match against Marsborne. This market will resolve to "Marsborne" if Marsborne win the match against NRG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last81¢
Polymarket last84¢
Model fair value82¢
Model confidence40%
Venues2
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