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Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group C

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 14, 2026
MarketMaster fair value31¢ vs live 28¢ on Polymarket
▲ +2.6% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO95¢97¢
$18,546 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢15¢
NO85¢87¢
$17,722 volume
Cross-venue spread 14.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 92¢ per $1 payout, locking +8.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Leo Team wins the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 2026: Misa Esports vs. Leo Team CS2 match originally scheduled for Aug 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Leo Team and Misa Esports in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group C, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Leo Team" if Leo Team win the match against Misa Esports. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Leo Team. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 21, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread14.0¢
Kalshi last
Polymarket last18¢
Model fair value31¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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