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Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 27, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
75¢ last
BidAsk
YES72¢75¢
NO25¢28¢
$4,395 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
43¢ last
BidAsk
YES34¢36¢
NO64¢66¢
$5,934 volume
Cross-venue spread 32.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 64¢ per $1 payout, locking +36.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Black Phoenix wins the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 2026: Misa Esports vs. Black Phoenix CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Black Phoenix and Misa Esports in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 27 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win Map 2 against Misa Esports. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win Map 2 against Black Phoenix. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread32.0¢
Kalshi last75¢
Polymarket last43¢
Venues2
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