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Contender Series: Hernandez vs Guillon — Hugo Guillon

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 16, 2026

MarketMaster fair value37¢ vs live 36¢ on Polymarket

1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 37¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.17¢ taker fee.

No edge after fees

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

62¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	61¢	62¢
NO	38¢	39¢

$4,996 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

64¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	63¢	64¢
NO	36¢	37¢

$972 volume

Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window

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Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Hugo Guillon wins the Hernandez vs Guillon professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Hugo Guillon" if Hugo Guillon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Hernandez at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6, scheduled for September 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Luis Hernandez" if Luis Hernandez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread2.0¢

Kalshi last62¢

Polymarket last64¢

Model fair value37¢

Model confidence31%

Venues2

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