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Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value54¢ vs live 53¢ on Kalshi
1.9% against the midpoint, 1.4% against the 53¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.4% after the 1.74¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
53¢ last
BidAsk
YES52¢53¢
NO47¢48¢
$45,161 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
56¢ last
BidAsk
YES54¢55¢
NO45¢46¢
$105,806 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Washington and San Francisco collectively score more than 50.5 points in the Washington vs San Francisco Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Commanders and 49ers combine to score 51 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 51, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last53¢
Polymarket last56¢
Model fair value54¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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