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Collignon vs Lehecka — Raphael Collignon

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 22, 2026
MarketMaster fair value73¢ vs live 72¢ on Polymarket
1.4% against the midpoint, -0.6% against the 74¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.5% after the 0.96¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
26¢ last
BidAsk
YES25¢26¢
NO74¢75¢
$41,373 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
28¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢28¢
NO72¢74¢
$1,500 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Raphael Collignon wins the Collignon vs Lehecka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Brussels Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Raphael Collignon and Jiri Lehecka in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Raphael Collignon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last26¢
Polymarket last28¢
Model fair value73¢
Model confidence39%
Venues2
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