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China Open: Janice Tjen vs Diana Shnaider

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 2, 2026
MarketMaster fair value28¢ vs live 27¢ on Kalshi
1.5% against the midpoint, 1.0% against the 27¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.3% after the 1.38¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
26¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢27¢
NO73¢74¢
$2,144 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
29¢ last
BidAsk
YES28¢29¢
NO71¢72¢
$14,891 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Janice Tjen wins the Tjen vs Shnaider professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Beijing Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Janice Tjen and Diana Shnaider in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Janice Tjen' if Janice Tjen advances against Diana Shnaider. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Janice Tjen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last26¢
Polymarket last29¢
Model fair value28¢
Model confidence40%
Venues2
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