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China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Diana Shnaider

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 4, 2026
MarketMaster fair value34¢ vs live 33¢ on Kalshi
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.9% against the 33¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.7% after the 1.55¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES32¢33¢
NO67¢68¢
$6,172 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
35¢ last
BidAsk
YES34¢35¢
NO65¢66¢
$9,701 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Ekaterina Alexandrova wins the Alexandrova vs Shnaider professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Beijing Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Ekaterina Alexandrova and Diana Shnaider in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ekaterina Alexandrova' if Ekaterina Alexandrova advances against Diana Shnaider. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Ekaterina Alexandrova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last33¢
Polymarket last35¢
Model fair value34¢
Model confidence39%
Venues2
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