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Carreno Busta vs Bellucci — Pablo Carreno Busta

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 31, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
17¢ last
BidAsk
YES16¢17¢
NO83¢84¢
$133,023 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
20¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢21¢
NO79¢81¢
$16,891 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Pablo Carreno Busta wins the Carreno Busta vs Bellucci professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Mattia Bellucci in the Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Mattia Bellucci. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last17¢
Polymarket last20¢
Venues2
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