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Baez vs Dzumhur — Sebastian Baez

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 31, 2026
MarketMaster fair value63¢ vs live 61¢ on Polymarket
2.3% against the midpoint, -2.7% against the 66¢ ask you would actually pay, -3.9% after the 1.12¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
35¢ last
BidAsk
YES34¢35¢
NO65¢66¢
$30,326 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
39¢ last
BidAsk
YES34¢35¢
NO65¢66¢
$8,630 volume
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Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Sebastian Baez wins the Baez vs Dzumhur professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Damir Dzumhur in the Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Damir Dzumhur. This market will resolve to 'Damir Dzumhur' if Damir Dzumhur advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last35¢
Polymarket last39¢
Model fair value63¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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