Skip to content
Scanner / All markets / Politics

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) — Democratic party

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 20, 2029
MarketMaster fair value39¢ vs live 36¢ on Polymarket
3.1% against the midpoint, 2.6% against the 36¢ ask you would actually pay, +1.7% after the 0.92¢ taker fee.
▲ +1.7% after fees · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES58¢59¢
NO41¢42¢
$262,409 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
64¢ last
BidAsk
YES64¢65¢
NO35¢36¢
$1,224,890 volume
Cross-venue spread 6.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 95¢ per $1 payout, locking +5.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread6.0¢
Kalshi last58¢
Polymarket last64¢
Model fair value39¢
Model confidence17%
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
ELSEWHERE
RELATED MARKETS
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1¢Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Josh ShapiroWill James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.